Importance Sampling
We describe briefly the powerful simulation tefchnique known as
“importance sampling.” Importance sampling is a technique that lets
you use numerical simulation to explore events that, at first look,
appear too rare to be reliably approximated numerically. The correctness
of importance sampling follows almost immediately from the definition
of a change of density. Like most mathematical techniques, importance
sampling brings in its own concerns and controls that were not obvious
in the original problem. To deal with these concerns (like picking
the re-weighting to use) we will largely appeal to the ideas from
“A Tutorial on the Cross-Entropy Method” Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Dirk P Kroese, Shie Mannor, and Reuven Y Rubinstein, Annals of Operations Research, 2005 vol. 134 (1) pp. 19-67.To make things concrete we describe the application of the method to a very simplified version of the problem of modeling mortgage defaults. Our writeup re-derives most everything for clarity and can be found here: http://www.win-vector.com/dfiles/ImportanceSampling.pdf
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