All posts by John Mount

I still think you can manufacture an unfair coin

In Gelman and Nolan’s paper “You Can Load a Die, But You Can’t Bias a Coin” The American Statistician, November 2002, Vol. 56, No. 4 it is argued you can’t easily produce a coin that is biased when flipped (and caught). A number of variations that can be easily biased (such as spinning) are also discussed.

Obviously Gelman and Nolan are smart and careful people. And we are discussing a well-regarded peer-reviewed article. So we don’t expect there is a major error. What we say is the abstraction they are using doesn’t match the physical abstraction I would pick. I pick a different one and I get different results. This is what I would like to discuss. Continue reading I still think you can manufacture an unfair coin

Using closures as objects in R

For more and more clients we have been using a nice coding pattern taught to us by Garrett Grolemund in his book Hands-On Programming with R: make a function that returns a list of functions. This turns out to be a classic functional programming techique: use closures to implement objects (terminology we will explain).

It is a pattern we strongly recommend, but with one caveat: it can leak references similar to the manner described in here. Once you work out how to stomp out the reference leaks the “function that returns a list of functions” pattern is really strong.

We will discuss this programming pattern and how to use it effectively. Continue reading Using closures as objects in R

One place not to use the Sharpe ratio

Having worked in finance I am a public fan of the Sharpe ratio. I have written about this here and here.

One thing I have often forgotten (driving some bad analyses) is: the Sharpe ratio isn’t appropriate for models of repeated events that already have linked mean and variance (such as Poisson or Binomial models) or situations where the variance is very small (with respect to the mean or expectation). These are common situations in a number of large scale online advertising problems (such as modeling the response rate to online advertisements or email campaigns).


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Photo “eggs in a basket” copyright MicoAssist appropriate CC license

In this note we will quickly explain the problem. Continue reading One place not to use the Sharpe ratio

The Win-Vector R data science value pack

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Please share and Tweet! Continue reading The Win-Vector R data science value pack

How sure are you that large margin implies low VC dimension?

How sure are you that large margin implies low VC dimension (and good generalization error)? It is true. But even if you have taken a good course on machine learning you many have seen the actual proof (with all of the caveats and conditions). I worked through the literature proofs over the holiday and it took a lot of notes to track what is really going on in the derivation of the support vector machine.


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Figure: the standard SVM margin diagram, this time with some un-marked data added.
Continue reading How sure are you that large margin implies low VC dimension?