We describe briefly the powerful simulation technique known as “importance sampling.” Importance sampling is a technique that allows you to use numerical simulation to explore events that, at first look, appear too rare to be reliably approximated numerically. The correctness of importance sampling follows almost immediately from the definition of a change of density. Like most mathematical techniques, importance sampling brings in its own concerns and controls that were not obvious in the original problem. To deal with these concerns (like picking the re-weighting to use) we will largely appeal to the ideas from “A Tutorial on the Cross-Entropy Method” Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Dirk P Kroese, Shie Mannor, and Reuven Y Rubinstein, Annals of Operations Research, 2005 vol. 134 (1) pp. 19-67. Read more…
It is a subtle point that statistical modeling is different than model based science. However, empirical scientists seem to go out of their way to conflate the two before the public (as statistical modeling is easier to perform and model based science is more highly rewarded). It is often claimed that model based science is being done when in fact statistics is what is being done (for instance some of the unfortunate distractions of flawed reports related to the important question of the magnitude of plausible anthropogenic global warming).
Both model based science and statistics are wonderful fields, but it is important to not receive the results of one when you have paid for the other.
We will pointedly discuss one of the differences. Read more…
A constant problem for computer science (since its inception) is how to manipulate data that is larger than machine memory. We present here some general strategies for working “out of core” or what you should do when you run out of memory.
Early computers were most limited by their paltry memory sizes. von Neumann himself commented that even a room full of genius mathematicians would not be capable of much if all they could communicate, think upon or remember were the characters on a single type written page (much more memory than the few hundred words available to the Eniac). The most visible portions of early computers are their external memories or secondary stores: card readers, paper tape readers and tape drives.
SDC 920 computer, Computer History Museum, Mountain View CA
Historically computer scientists have concentrated on streaming or online algorithms (that is algorithms that work with the data in the order it is available and use limited memory). For many problems we have found this an insufficient model and it is much better to assume you can re-order and replicate data (such as scattering data to many processors and re-collecting it to sort). The scatter/gather paradigm is ubiquitous and is the underpinning of large scale sorting, databases and Map Reduce. So in one sense databases and Map Reduce different APIs on top of very related technologies (journaling, splitting and merging). Replicating data (or even delaying duplicate elimination) that is already “too large to handle” may seem counterintuitive; but it is exploiting the primary property of secondary storage: that secondary storage tends to be much larger than primary storage (typically by 2 orders of magnitude, compare a 2 terabyte drive to an 8 gigabyte memory stick). Read more…
We share our admiration for a set of results called “locality sensitive hashing” by demonstrating a greatly simplified example that exhibits the spirit of the techniques. Read more…
Re-read Fred Brooks “The Mythical Man Month” over vacation. Book remains insightful about computer science and project management. Read more…
We give a simple explanation of the interrelated machine learning techniques called kernel methods and support vector machines. We hope to characterize and de-mystify some of the properties of these methods. To do this we work some examples and draw a few analogies. The familiar no matter how wonderful is not perceived as mystical. Read more…
I think I have been pretty productive on technical tasks lately and the method is (at least to me) interesting. The effect was accidental but I think one can explain it and reproduce it by synthesizing three important observations on human behavior. Read more…
Nina Zumel recently gave a very clear explanation of logistic regression ( The Simpler Derivation of Logistic Regression ). In particular she called out the central role of log-odds ratios and demonstrated how the “deviance” (that mysterious
quantity reported by fitting packages) is both a term in “the pseudo-R^2″ (so directly measures goodness of fit) and is the quantity that is actually optimized during the fitting procedure. One great point of the writeup was how simple everything is once you start thinking in terms of derivatives (and that it isn’t so much the functional form of the sigmoid that is special but its relation to its own derivative that is special).
We adapt these presentation ideas to make explicit the well known equivalence of logistic regression and maximum entropy models. Read more…
We have been consistently impressed by and enjoyed the wealth of R wisdom available on the R-bloggers aggregation site.
Therefore Win-Vector LLC is granting the right to reformat and redistribute (with attribution and link) our blog‘s R content in the R-bloggers site and feeds.
We hope to see our R content shared through this network.
Programmers should definitely know how to use R. I don’t mean they should switch from their current language to R, but they should think of R as a handy tool during development. Read more…