Principal Components Regression, Pt. 3: Picking the Number of Components

Posted on Categories Mathematics, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, StatisticsTags , , , , 1 Comment on Principal Components Regression, Pt. 3: Picking the Number of Components

In our previous note we demonstrated Y-Aware PCA and other y-aware approaches to dimensionality reduction in a predictive modeling context, specifically Principal Components Regression (PCR). For our examples, we selected the appropriate number of principal components by eye. In this note, we will look at ways to select the appropriate number of principal components in a more automated fashion.

Continue reading Principal Components Regression, Pt. 3: Picking the Number of Components

Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

Posted on Categories data science, Exciting Techniques, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , , , 2 Comments on Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

In our previous note, we discussed some problems that can arise when using standard principal components analysis (specifically, principal components regression) to model the relationship between independent (x) and dependent (y) variables. In this note, we present some dimensionality reduction techniques that alleviate some of those problems, in particular what we call Y-Aware Principal Components Analysis, or Y-Aware PCA. We will use our variable treatment package vtreat in the examples we show in this note, but you can easily implement the approach independently of vtreat.

Continue reading Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

Principal Components Regression, Pt.1: The Standard Method

Posted on Categories data science, Expository Writing, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , , 14 Comments on Principal Components Regression, Pt.1: The Standard Method

In this note, we discuss principal components regression and some of the issues with it:

  • The need for scaling.
  • The need for pruning.
  • The lack of “y-awareness” of the standard dimensionality reduction step.

Continue reading Principal Components Regression, Pt.1: The Standard Method

Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

Posted on Categories data science, Exciting Techniques, Expository Writing, Mathematics, StatisticsTags , , , , , ,

One of the trickier tasks in clustering is determining the appropriate number of clusters. Domain-specific knowledge is always best, when you have it, but there are a number of heuristics for getting at the likely number of clusters in your data. We cover a few of them in Chapter 8 (available as a free sample chapter) of our book Practical Data Science with R.

We also came upon another cool approach, in the mixtools package for mixture model analysis. As with clustering, if you want to fit a mixture model (say, a mixture of gaussians) to your data, it helps to know how many components are in your mixture. The boot.comp function estimates the number of components (let’s call it k) by incrementally testing the hypothesis that there are k+1 components against the null hypothesis that there are k components, via parametric bootstrap.

You can use a similar idea to estimate the number of clusters in a clustering problem, if you make a few assumptions about the shape of the clusters. This approach is only heuristic, and more ad-hoc in the clustering situation than it is in mixture modeling. Still, it’s another approach to add to your toolkit, and estimating the number of clusters via a variety of different heuristics isn’t a bad idea.

Continue reading Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

Using PostgreSQL in R: A quick how-to

Posted on Categories Coding, data science, Expository Writing, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, TutorialsTags , , , , , , , , 4 Comments on Using PostgreSQL in R: A quick how-to

The combination of R plus SQL offers an attractive way to work with what we call medium-scale data: data that’s perhaps too large to gracefully work with in its entirety within your favorite desktop analysis tool (whether that be R or Excel), but too small to justify the overhead of big data infrastructure. In some cases you can use a serverless SQL database that gives you the power of SQL for data manipulation, while maintaining a lightweight infrastructure.

We call this work pattern “SQL Screwdriver”: delegating data handling to a lightweight infrastructure with the power of SQL for data manipulation.

NewImageImage: Iainf, some rights reserved.

We assume for this how-to that you already have a PostgreSQL database up and running. To get PostgreSQL for Windows, OSX, or Unix use the instructions at PostgreSQL downloads. If you happen to be on a Mac, then Postgres.app provides a “serverless” (or application oriented) install option.

For the rest of this post, we give a quick how-to on using the RpostgreSQL package to interact with Postgres databases in R.

Continue reading Using PostgreSQL in R: A quick how-to

“Introduction to Data Science” video course contest is closed

Posted on Categories Administrativia, CodingTags , ,

Congratulations to all the winners of the Win-Vector “Introduction to Data Science” Video Course giveaway! We’ve emailed all of you your individual subscription coupons. Continue reading “Introduction to Data Science” video course contest is closed

Upcoming Win-Vector Appearances

Posted on Categories Administrativia, data science, Statistics, TutorialsTags , 1 Comment on Upcoming Win-Vector Appearances

We have two public appearances coming up in the next few weeks:

Workshop at ODSC, San Francisco – November 14

Both of us will be giving a two-hour workshop called Preparing Data for Analysis using R: Basic through Advanced Techniques. We will cover key issues in this important but often neglected aspect of data science, what can go wrong, and how to fix it. This is part of the Open Data Science Conference (ODSC) at the Marriot Waterfront in Burlingame, California, November 14-15. If you are attending this conference, we look forward to seeing you there!

You can find an abstract for the workshop, along with links to software and code you can download ahead of time, here.

An Introduction to Differential Privacy as Applied to Machine Learning: Women in ML/DS – December 2

I (Nina) will give a talk to the Bay Area Women in Machine Learning & Data Science Meetup group, on applying differential privacy for reusable hold-out sets in machine learning. The talk will also cover the use of differential privacy in effects coding (what we’ve been calling “impact coding”) to reduce the bias that can arise from the use of nested models. Information about the talk, and the meetup group, can be found here.

We’re looking forward to these upcoming appearances, and we hope you can make one or both of them.

Our Differential Privacy Mini-series

Posted on Categories Administrativia, Computer Science, data science, Exciting Techniques, Statistics, UncategorizedTags , , , ,

We’ve just finished off a series of articles on some recent research results applying differential privacy to improve machine learning. Some of these results are pretty technical, so we thought it was worth working through concrete examples. And some of the original results are locked behind academic journal paywalls, so we’ve tried to touch on the highlights of the papers, and to play around with variations of our own.

Blurry snowflakes stock by cosmicgallifrey d3inho1

  • A Simpler Explanation of Differential Privacy: Quick explanation of epsilon-differential privacy, and an introduction to an algorithm for safely reusing holdout data, recently published in Science (Cynthia Dwork, Vitaly Feldman, Moritz Hardt, Toniann Pitassi, Omer Reingold, Aaron Roth, “The reusable holdout: Preserving validity in adaptive data analysis”, Science, vol 349, no. 6248, pp. 636-638, August 2015).

    Note that Cynthia Dwork is one of the inventors of differential privacy, originally used in the analysis of sensitive information.

  • Using differential privacy to reuse training data: Specifically, how differential privacy helps you build efficient encodings of categorical variables with many levels from your training data without introducing undue bias into downstream modeling.
  • A simple differentially private-ish procedure: The bootstrap as an alternative to Laplace noise to introduce privacy.

Our R code and experiments are available on Github here, so you can try some experiments and variations yourself.

Image Credit

A Simpler Explanation of Differential Privacy

Posted on Categories data science, Exciting Techniques, Expository Writing, Statistics, Statistics To English Translation, TutorialsTags , , , , , , 6 Comments on A Simpler Explanation of Differential Privacy

Differential privacy was originally developed to facilitate secure analysis over sensitive data, with mixed success. It’s back in the news again now, with exciting results from Cynthia Dwork, et. al. (see references at the end of the article) that apply results from differential privacy to machine learning.

In this article we’ll work through the definition of differential privacy and demonstrate how Dwork et.al.’s recent results can be used to improve the model fitting process.

NewImage
The Voight-Kampff Test: Looking for a difference. Scene from Blade Runner

Continue reading A Simpler Explanation of Differential Privacy

How do you know if your model is going to work?

Posted on Categories Opinion, Statistics, Statistics To English Translation, TutorialsTags , ,

Authors: John Mount (more articles) and Nina Zumel (more articles).

Our four part article series collected into one piece.

  • Part 1: The problem
  • Part 2: In-training set measures
  • Part 3: Out of sample procedures
  • Part 4: Cross-validation techniques

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”


George Box

Here’s a caricature of a data science project: your company or client needs information (usually to make a decision). Your job is to build a model to predict that information. You fit a model, perhaps several, to available data and evaluate them to find the best. Then you cross your fingers that your chosen model doesn’t crash and burn in the real world.

We’ve discussed detecting if your data has a signal. Now: how do you know that your model is good? And how sure are you that it’s better than the models that you rejected?


Bartolomeu Velho 1568
Geocentric illustration Bartolomeu Velho, 1568 (Bibliothèque Nationale, Paris)

Notice the Sun in the 4th revolution about the earth. A very pretty, but not entirely reliable model.

In this latest “Statistics as it should be” article, we will systematically look at what to worry about and what to check. This is standard material, but presented in a “data science” oriented manner. Meaning we are going to consider scoring system utility in terms of service to a negotiable business goal (one of the many ways data science differs from pure machine learning).

Continue reading How do you know if your model is going to work?