Posted on Categories Administrativia, data science, Opinion, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, StatisticsTags , , 2 Comments on You should re-encode high cardinality categorical variables

You should re-encode high cardinality categorical variables

Nina Zumel and I have been doing a lot of writing on the (important) details of re-encoding high cardinality categorical variables for predictive modeling. These are variables that essentially take on string-values (also called levels or factors) and vary through many such levels. Typical examples include zip-codes, vendor IDs, and product codes.

In a sort of “burying the lede” way I feel we may not have sufficiently emphasized that you really do need to perform such re-encodings. Below is a graph (generated in R, code available here) of the kind of disaster you see if you throw such variables into a model without any pre-processing or post-controls.

NewImage

In the above graph each dot represents the performance of a model fit on synthetic data. The x-axis is model performance (in this case pseudo R-squared, 1 being perfect and below zero worse than using an average). The training pane represents performance on the training data (perfect, but over-fit) and the test pane represents performance on held-out test data (an attempt to simulate future application data). Notice the test performance implies these models are dangerously worse than useless.

Please read on for how to fix this. Continue reading You should re-encode high cardinality categorical variables

Posted on Categories Administrativia, data science, Opinion, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , 1 Comment on Data science for executives and managers

Data science for executives and managers

Nina Zumel recently announced upcoming speaking appearances. I want to promote the upcoming sessions at ODSC West 2016 (11:15am-1:00pm on Friday November 4th, or 3:00pm-4:30pm on Saturday November 5th) and invite executives, managers, and other data science consumers to attend. We assume most of the Win-Vector blog audience is made of practitioners (who we hope are already planning to attend), so we are asking you our technical readers to help promote this talk to a broader audience of executives and managers.

Our messages is: if you have to manage data science projects, you need to know how to evaluate results.

In these talks we will lay out how data science results should be examined and evaluated. If you can’t make ODSC (or do attend and like what you see), please reach out to us and we can arrange to present an appropriate targeted summarized version to your executive team. Continue reading Data science for executives and managers

Posted on Categories Administrativia, data science, Statistics, TutorialsTags , 3 Comments on Upcoming Talks

Upcoming Talks

I (Nina Zumel) will be speaking at the Women who Code Silicon Valley meetup on Thursday, October 27.

The talk is called Improving Prediction using Nested Models and Simulated Out-of-Sample Data.

In this talk I will discuss nested predictive models. These are models that predict an outcome or dependent variable (called y) using additional submodels that have also been built with knowledge of y. Practical applications of nested models include “the wisdom of crowds”, prediction markets, variable re-encoding, ensemble learning, stacked learning, and superlearners.

Nested models can improve prediction performance relative to single models, but they introduce a number of undesirable biases and operational issues, and when they are improperly used, are statistically unsound. However modern practitioners have made effective, correct use of these techniques. In my talk I will give concrete examples of nested models, how they can fail, and how to fix failures. The solutions we will discuss include advanced data partitioning, simulated out-of-sample data, and ideas from differential privacy. The theme of the talk is that with proper techniques, these powerful methods can be safely used.

John Mount and I will also be giving a workshop called A Unified View of Model Evaluation at ODSC West 2016 on November 4 (the premium workshop sessions), and November 5 (the general workshop sessions).

We will present a unified framework for predictive model construction and evaluation. Using this perspective we will work through crucial issues from classical statistical methodology, large data treatment, variable selection, ensemble methods, and all the way through stacking/super-learning. We will present R code demonstrating principled techniques for preparing data, scoring models, estimating model reliability, and producing decisive visualizations. In this workshop we will share example data, methods, graphics, and code.

I’m looking forward to these talks, and I hope some of you will be able to attend.

Posted on Categories data science, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , 2 Comments on Adding polished significance summaries to papers using R

Adding polished significance summaries to papers using R

When we teach “R for statistics” to groups of scientists (who tend to be quite well informed in statistics, and just need a bit of help with R) we take the time to re-work some tests of model quality with the appropriate significance tests. We organize the lesson in terms of a larger and more detailed version of the following list:

  • To test the quality of a numeric model to numeric outcome: F-test (as in linear regression).
  • To test the quality of a numeric model to a categorical outcome: χ2 or “Chi-squared” test (as in logistic regression).
  • To test the association of a categorical predictor to a categorical outcome: many tests including Fisher’s exact test and Barnard’s test.
  • To test the quality of a categorical predictor to a numeric outcome: t-Test, ANOVA, and Tukey’s “honest significant difference” test.

The above tests are all in terms of checking model results, so we don’t allow re-scaling of the predictor as part of the test (as we would have in a Pearson correlation test, or an area under the curve test). There are, of course, many alternatives such as Wald’s test- but we try to start with a set of tests that are standard, well known, and well reported by R. An odd exception has always been the χ2 test, which we will write a bit about in this note. Continue reading Adding polished significance summaries to papers using R

Posted on Categories data science, Exciting Techniques, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , , , 2 Comments on Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

In our previous note, we discussed some problems that can arise when using standard principal components analysis (specifically, principal components regression) to model the relationship between independent (x) and dependent (y) variables. In this note, we present some dimensionality reduction techniques that alleviate some of those problems, in particular what we call Y-Aware Principal Components Analysis, or Y-Aware PCA. We will use our variable treatment package vtreat in the examples we show in this note, but you can easily implement the approach independently of vtreat.

Continue reading Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

Posted on Categories data science, Expository Writing, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , , 14 Comments on Principal Components Regression, Pt.1: The Standard Method

Principal Components Regression, Pt.1: The Standard Method

In this note, we discuss principal components regression and some of the issues with it:

  • The need for scaling.
  • The need for pruning.
  • The lack of “y-awareness” of the standard dimensionality reduction step.

Continue reading Principal Components Regression, Pt.1: The Standard Method

Posted on Categories data science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , 2 Comments on vtreat cross frames

vtreat cross frames

vtreat cross frames

John Mount, Nina Zumel

2016-05-05

As a follow on to “On Nested Models” we work R examples demonstrating “cross validated training frames” (or “cross frames”) in vtreat.

Continue reading vtreat cross frames

Posted on Categories Administrativia, data science, Programming, StatisticsTags ,

More Shiny user showcase demonstrations

We at Win-Vector LLC are very proud to announce that RStudio just inducted two more of our demonstration Shiny applications into their Shiny User Showcase gallery. Continue reading More Shiny user showcase demonstrations

Posted on Categories data science, Exciting Techniques, Expository Writing, Mathematics, StatisticsTags , , , , , ,

Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

One of the trickier tasks in clustering is determining the appropriate number of clusters. Domain-specific knowledge is always best, when you have it, but there are a number of heuristics for getting at the likely number of clusters in your data. We cover a few of them in Chapter 8 (available as a free sample chapter) of our book Practical Data Science with R.

We also came upon another cool approach, in the mixtools package for mixture model analysis. As with clustering, if you want to fit a mixture model (say, a mixture of gaussians) to your data, it helps to know how many components are in your mixture. The boot.comp function estimates the number of components (let’s call it k) by incrementally testing the hypothesis that there are k+1 components against the null hypothesis that there are k components, via parametric bootstrap.

You can use a similar idea to estimate the number of clusters in a clustering problem, if you make a few assumptions about the shape of the clusters. This approach is only heuristic, and more ad-hoc in the clustering situation than it is in mixture modeling. Still, it’s another approach to add to your toolkit, and estimating the number of clusters via a variety of different heuristics isn’t a bad idea.

Continue reading Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

Posted on Categories Applications, data science, Expository Writing, Opinion, Practical Data Science, Pragmatic Data Science, Pragmatic Machine Learning, Statistics, TutorialsTags , , , , , 2 Comments on Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

The mathematical concept of set diversity is a somewhat neglected topic in current applied decision sciences and optimization. We take this opportunity to discuss the issue.

The problem

Consider the following problem: for a number of items U = {x_1, … x_n} pick a small set of them X = {x_i1, x_i2, ..., x_ik} such that there is a high probability one of the x in X is a “success.” By success I mean some standard business outcome such as making a sale (in the sense of any of: propensity, appetency, up selling, and uplift modeling), clicking an advertisement, adding an account, finding a new medicine, or learning something useful.

This is common in:

  • Search engines. The user is presented with a page consisting of “top results” with the hope that one of the results is what the user wanted.
  • Online advertising. The user is presented with a number of advertisements in enticements in the hope that one of them matches user taste.
  • Science. A number of molecules are simultaneously presented to biological assay hoping that at least one of them is a new drug candidate, or that the simultaneous set of measurements shows us where to experiment further.
  • Sensor/guard placement. Overlapping areas of coverage don’t make up for uncovered areas.
  • Machine learning method design. The random forest algorithm requires diversity among its sub-trees to work well. It tries to ensure by both per-tree variable selections and re-sampling (some of these issues discussed here).

In this note we will touch on key applications and some of the theory involved. While our group specializes in practical data science implementations, applications, and training, our researchers experience great joy when they can re-formulate a common problem using known theory/math and the reformulation is game changing (as it is in the case of set-scoring).


Rplot01

Minimal spanning trees, the basis of one set diversity metric.

Continue reading Neglected optimization topic: set diversity