Page 94 of Gelman, Carlin, Stern, Dunson, Vehtari, Rubin “Bayesian Data Analysis” 3rd Edition (which we will call BDA3) provides a great example of what happens when common broad frequentist bias criticisms are over-applied to predictions from ordinary linear regression: the predictions appear to fall apart. BDA3 goes on to exhibit what might be considered the kind of automatic/mechanical fix responding to such criticisms would entail (producing a bias corrected predictor), and rightly shows these adjusted predictions are far worse than the original ordinary linear regression predictions. BDA3 makes a number of interesting points and is worth studying closely. We work their example in a bit more detail for emphasis. Read more…

What is meant by regression modeling?

Linear Regression is one of the most common statistical modeling techniques. It is very powerful, important, and (at first glance) easy to teach. However, because it is such a broad topic it can be a minefield for teaching and discussion. It is common for angry experts to accuse writers of carelessness, ignorance, malice and stupidity. If the type of regression the expert reader is expecting doesn’t match the one the writer is discussing then the writer is assumed to be ill-informed. The writer is especially vulnerable to experts when writing for non-experts. In such writing the expert finds nothing new (as they already know the topic) and is free to criticize any accommodation or adaption made for the intended non-expert audience. We argue that many of the corrections are not so much evidence of wrong ideas but more due a lack of empathy for the necessary informality necessary in concise writing. You can only define so much in a given space, and once you write too much you confuse and intimidate a beginning audience. Read more…

Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently wrote an article advocating the abandonment of the use of standard deviation and advocating the use of mean absolute deviation. Mean absolute deviation is indeed an interesting and useful measure- but there is a reason that standard deviation is important *even if you do not like it*: it prefers models that get totals and averages correct. Absolute deviation measures do not prefer such models. So while MAD may be great for reporting, it can be a problem when used to optimize models. Read more…

I was watching my cousins play Unspeakable Words over Christmas break and got interested in the end game. The game starts out as a spell a word from cards and then bet some points game, but in the end (when you are down to one marker) it becomes a pure betting game. In this article we analyze an idealized form of the pure betting end game. Read more…

Elon Musk’s writing about a Tesla battery fire reminded me of some of the math related to trying to estimate the rate of a rare event from a single occurrence of the event (plus many non-event occurrences). In this article we work through some of the ideas. Read more…

This article is a break from data-science, and is instead about the kind of problem you can try on the train. It is inspired by the problems in Bollobas’s “The art of mathematics.”

One of the many irritating things about airlines is the fact that the cary-on bag restrictions are often stated as “your maximum combined linear measurement (length + width + height) must not exceed 45 inches” when they really mean your bag must fit into a 14 inch by 9 inch by 22 inch box (so they actually may not accept a 43 inch by one inch by one inch pool spear as your carry-on). The “total linear measure” seems (at first glance) “gameable,” but can (through some hairy math) at least be seen to at least be self-consistent. It turns out you can’t put a box with longer total linear measurements into a box with smaller total linear measurements.

Let’s work out why this could be problem and then why the measure works. Read more…

We share our opinion that `=`

should be preferred to the more standard `<-`

for assignment in R. This is from a draft of the appendix of our upcoming book. This has the risk of becoming an R version of Javascript’s semicolon controversy, but here you have it. Read more…

From time to time we work on projects that would benefit from a free lightweight pure Java linear programming library. That is a library unencumbered by a bad license, available cheaply, without an infinite amount of file format and interop cruft and available in Java (without binary blobs and JNI linkages). There are a few such libraries, but none have repeatably, efficiently and reliably met our needs. So we have re-packaged an older one of our own for release under the Apache 2.0 license. This code will have its own rough edges (not having been used widely in production), but I still feel fills an important gap. This article is brief introduction to our WVLPSolver Java library. Read more…

von Neumann and Morgenstern’s “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior” is the famous basis for game theory. One of the central accomplishments is the rigorous proof that comparative “preference methods” over fairly complicated “event spaces” are no more expressive than numeric (real number valued) utilities. That is: for a very wide class of event spaces and comparison functions “>” there is a utility function u() such that:

a > b (“>” representing the arbitrary comparison or preference for the event space) if and only if u(a) > u(b) (this time “>” representing the standard order on the reals).

However, an active reading of sections 1 through 3 and even the 2nd edition’s axiomatic appendix shows that the concept of “events” (what preferences and utilities are defined over) is deliberately left undefined. There is math and objects and spaces, but not all of them are explicitly defined in term of known structures (are they points in R^n, sets, multi-sets, sums over sets or what?). The word “event” is used early in the book and not in the index. Axiomatic treatments often rely on intentionally leaving ground-concepts undefined, but we are going to work a concrete example through von Neumann and Morgenstern to try and illustrate a bit more of the required intuition and deep nature of their formal notions of events and utility. I also will illustrate how, at least in discussion, von Neuman and Morgenstern may have held on to a naive “single outcome” intuition of events and a naive “direct dollars” intuition of utility despite erecting a theory carefully designed to support much more structure. This is possible because they never have to calculate in the general event space: they prove access to the preference allows them to construct the utility funciton u() and then work over the real numbers. Sections 1 through 3 are designed to eliminate the need for a theory of preference or utility and allow von Neuman and Morgenstern to work with real numbers (while achieving full generality). They never need to make the translations explicit, because soon after showing the translations are possible they assume they have already been applied. Read more…

We have added a worked example to the README of our experimental logistic regression code.

The Logistic codebase is designed to support experimentation on variations of logistic regression including:

What we mean by this code being “experimental” is that it has capabilities that many standard implementations do not. In fact most of the items in the above list are not usually made available to the logistic regression user. But our project is also stand-alone and not as well integrated into existing workflows as standard production systems. Before trying our code you may want to try R or Mahout. Read more…

Categories: Coding, Computer Science, data science, Mathematics, Statistics Tags: EC2, Elastic map reduce, experimental code, Hadoop, Java, Logistic Regression, Map Reduce