A quick demo of RStudio’s R Notebooks shown by John Mount (of Win-Vector LLC, a statistics, data science, and algorithms consulting and training firm).

It looks like some of the new in-line display behavior is back-ported to R Markdown and some of the difference is the delayed running and different level of interactivity in the HTML document. This makes it a bit hard to call out which RStudio’s improvements are “R notebooks” versus “R markdown”, but it means there is a lot of new functionality available. I’ve updated the video to reflect the subtlty (unfortunately on YouTube that means a new URL as you can’t replace videos).

And some just in case decelerations/clarifications/reminders: this video is not from RStudio (the company), and Rstudio client (the software) is a user interface that is separate from the R analysis system itself.

Nina Zumel recently announced upcoming speaking appearances. I want to promote the upcoming sessions at ODSC West 2016 (11:15am-1:00pm on Friday November 4th, or 3:00pm-4:30pm on Saturday November 5th) and invite executives, managers, and other data science consumers to attend. We assume most of the Win-Vector blog audience is made of practitioners (who we hope are already planning to attend), so we are asking you our technical readers to help promote this talk to a broader audience of executives and managers.

Our messages is: if you have to manage data science projects, you need to know how to evaluate results.

In these talks we will lay out how data science results should be examined and evaluated. If you can’t make ODSC (or do attend and like what you see), please reach out to us and we can arrange to present an appropriate targeted summarized version to your executive team. Continue reading Data science for executives and managers

The talk is called Improving Prediction using Nested Models and Simulated Out-of-Sample Data.

In this talk I will discuss nested predictive models. These are models that predict an outcome or dependent variable (called y) using additional submodels that have also been built with knowledge of y. Practical applications of nested models include “the wisdom of crowds”, prediction markets, variable re-encoding, ensemble learning, stacked learning, and superlearners.

Nested models can improve prediction performance relative to single models, but they introduce a number of undesirable biases and operational issues, and when they are improperly used, are statistically unsound. However modern practitioners have made effective, correct use of these techniques. In my talk I will give concrete examples of nested models, how they can fail, and how to fix failures. The solutions we will discuss include advanced data partitioning, simulated out-of-sample data, and ideas from differential privacy. The theme of the talk is that with proper techniques, these powerful methods can be safely used.

John Mount and I will also be giving a workshop called A Unified View of Model Evaluation at ODSC West 2016 on November 4 (the premium workshop sessions), and November 5 (the general workshop sessions).

We will present a unified framework for predictive model construction and evaluation. Using this perspective we will work through crucial issues from classical statistical methodology, large data treatment, variable selection, ensemble methods, and all the way through stacking/super-learning. We will present R code demonstrating principled techniques for preparing data, scoring models, estimating model reliability, and producing decisive visualizations. In this workshop we will share example data, methods, graphics, and code.

I’m looking forward to these talks, and I hope some of you will be able to attend.

When we teach “R for statistics” to groups of scientists (who tend to be quite well informed in statistics, and just need a bit of help with R) we take the time to re-work some tests of model quality with the appropriate significance tests. We organize the lesson in terms of a larger and more detailed version of the following list:

To test the quality of a numeric model to numeric outcome: F-test (as in linear regression).

To test the quality of a numeric model to a categorical outcome: χ^{2} or “Chi-squared” test (as in logistic regression).

To test the association of a categorical predictor to a categorical outcome: many tests including Fisher’s exact test and Barnard’s test.

To test the quality of a categorical predictor to a numeric outcome: t-Test, ANOVA, and Tukey’s “honest significant difference” test.

The above tests are all in terms of checking model results, so we don’t allow re-scaling of the predictor as part of the test (as we would have in a Pearson correlation test, or an area under the curve test). There are, of course, many alternatives such as Wald’s test- but we try to start with a set of tests that are standard, well known, and well reported by R. An odd exception has always been the χ^{2} test, which we will write a bit about in this note. Continue reading Adding polished significance summaries to papers using R

Nina Zumel prepared an excellent article on the consequences of working with relative error distributed quantities (such as wealth, income, sales, and many more) called “Living in A Lognormal World.” The article emphasizes that if you are dealing with such quantities you are already seeing effects of relative error distributions (so it isn’t an exotic idea you bring to analysis, it is a likely fact about the world that comes at you). The article is a good example of how to plot and reason about such situations.

Writing a book is a sacrifice. It takes a lot of time, represents a lot of missed opportunities, and does not (directly) pay very well. If you do a good job it may pay back in good-will, but producing a serious book is a great challenge.

In the end we worked very hard to organize and share a lot of good material in what we feel is a very readable manner. But I think the first-author may have been signaling and preparing a bit earlier than I was aware we were writing a book. Please read on to see some of her prefiguring work. Continue reading Did she know we were writing a book?