`sigr`

is a simple `R`

package that conveniently formats a few statistics and their significance tests. This allows the analyst to use the correct test no matter what modeling package or procedure they use.

# Tag: significance

## Be careful evaluating model predictions

One thing I teach is: when evaluating the performance of regression models you should not use correlation as your score.

This is because correlation tells you if a re-scaling of your result is useful, but you want to know if the result in your hand is in fact useful. For example: the Mars Climate Orbiter software issued thrust commands in pound-seconds units to an engine expecting the commands to be in newton-seconds units. The two quantities are related by a constant ratio of 1.4881639, and therefore anything measured in pound-seconds units will have a correlation of 1.0 with the same measurement in newton-seconds units. However, one is not the other and the difference is why the Mars Climate Orbiter “encountered Mars at a lower than anticipated altitude and disintegrated due to atmospheric stresses.”

The need for a convenient direct F-test without accidentally triggering the implicit re-scaling that is associated with calculating a correlation is one of the reasons we supply the sigr R library. However, even then things can become confusing.

Please read on for a nasty little example. Continue reading Be careful evaluating model predictions

## Adding polished significance summaries to papers using R

When we teach “`R`

for statistics” to groups of scientists (who tend to be quite well informed in statistics, and just need a bit of help with R) we take the time to re-work some tests of model quality with the appropriate significance tests. We organize the lesson in terms of a larger and more detailed version of the following list:

- To test the quality of a numeric model to numeric outcome: F-test (as in linear regression).
- To test the quality of a numeric model to a categorical outcome: χ
^{2}or “Chi-squared” test (as in logistic regression). - To test the association of a categorical predictor to a categorical outcome: many tests including Fisher’s exact test and Barnard’s test.
- To test the quality of a categorical predictor to a numeric outcome: t-Test, ANOVA, and Tukey’s “honest significant difference” test.

The above tests are all in terms of checking model results, so we don’t allow re-scaling of the predictor as part of the test (as we would have in a Pearson correlation test, or an area under the curve test). There are, of course, many alternatives such as Wald’s test- but we try to start with a set of tests that are standard, well known, and well reported by `R`

. An odd exception has always been the χ^{2} test, which we will write a bit about in this note. Continue reading Adding polished significance summaries to papers using R

## Proofing statistics in papers

Recently saw a really fun article making the rounds: “The prevalence of statistical reporting errors in psychology (1985–2013)”, Nuijten, M.B., Hartgerink, C.H.J., van Assen, M.A.L.M. et al., Behav Res (2015), doi:10.3758/s13428-015-0664-2. The authors built an R package to check psychology papers for statistical errors. Please read on for how that is possible, some tools, and commentary.

Early automated analysis:

Trial model of a part of the Analytical Engine, built by Babbage, as displayed at the Science Museum (London) (Wikipedia).

## Variables can synergize, even in a linear model

## Introduction

Suppose we have the task of predicting an outcome `y`

given a number of variables `v1,..,vk`

. We often want to “prune variables” or build models with fewer than all the variables. This can be to speed up modeling, decrease the cost of producing future data, improve robustness, improve explain-ability, even reduce over-fit, and improve the quality of the resulting model.

For some informative discussion on such issues please see the following:

- How Do You Know if Your Data Has Signal?
- How do you know if your model is going to work?
- Variable pruning is NP hard

In this article we are going to deliberately (and artificially) find and test one of the limits of the technique. We recommend simple variable pruning, but also think it is important to be aware of its limits.

Continue reading Variables can synergize, even in a linear model

## Variable pruning is NP hard

I am working on some practical articles on variable selection, especially in the context of step-wise linear regression and logistic regression. One thing I noticed while preparing some examples is that summaries such as model quality (especially out of sample quality) and variable significances are not quite as simple as one would hope (they in fact lack a lot of the monotone structure or submodular structure that would make things easy).

That being said we have a lot of powerful and effective heuristics to discuss in upcoming articles. I am going to leave such positive results for my later articles and here concentrate on an instructive technical negative result: picking a good subset of variables is theoretically quite hard. Continue reading Variable pruning is NP hard

## How Do You Know if Your Data Has Signal?

Image by Liz Sullivan, Creative Commons. Source: Wikimedia

An all too common approach to modeling in data science is to throw all possible variables at a modeling procedure and “let the algorithm sort it out.” This is tempting when you are not sure what are the true causes or predictors of the phenomenon you are interested in, but it presents dangers, too. Very wide data sets are computationally difficult for some modeling procedures; and more importantly, they can lead to overfit models that generalize poorly on new data. In extreme cases, wide data can fool modeling procedures into finding models that look good on training data, even when that data has *no* signal. We showed some examples of this previously in our “Bad Bayes” blog post.

In this latest “Statistics as it should be” article, we will look at a heuristic to help determine which of your input variables have signal. Continue reading How Do You Know if Your Data Has Signal?

## One place not to use the Sharpe ratio

Having worked in finance I am a public fan of the Sharpe ratio. I have written about this here and here.

One thing I have often forgotten (driving some bad analyses) is: the Sharpe ratio isn’t appropriate for models of repeated events that already have linked mean and variance (such as Poisson or Binomial models) or situations where the variance is very small (with respect to the mean or expectation). These are common situations in a number of large scale online advertising problems (such as modeling the response rate to online advertisements or email campaigns).

Photo “eggs in a basket” copyright MicoAssist appropriate CC license

In this note we will quickly explain the problem. Continue reading One place not to use the Sharpe ratio

## A clear picture of power and significance in A/B tests

A/B tests are one of the simplest reliable experimental designs.

Controlled experiments embody the best scientific design for establishing a causal relationship between changes and their influence on user-observable behavior.

“Practical guide to controlled experiments on the web: listen to your customers not to the HIPPO” Ron Kohavi, Randal M Henne, and Dan Sommerfield, Proceedings of the 13th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, 2007 pp. 959-967.

The ideas is to test a variation (called “treatment” or “B”) in parallel with continuing to test a baseline (called “control” or “A”) to see if the variation drives a desired effect (increase in revenue, cure of disease, and so on). By running both tests at the same time it is hoped that any confounding or omitted factors are nearly evenly distributed between the two groups and therefore not spoiling results. This is a much safer system of testing than retrospective studies (where we look for features from data already collected).

Interestingly enough the multi-armed bandit alternative to A/B testing (a procedure that introduces online control) is one of the simplest non-trivial Markov decision processes. However, we will limit ourselves to traditional A/B testing for the remainder of this note. Continue reading A clear picture of power and significance in A/B tests

## Drowning in insignificance

Some researchers (in both science and marketing) abuse a slavish view of p-values to try and falsely claim credibility. The incantation is: “we achieved p = x (with x ≤ 0.05) so you should trust our work.” This might be true if the published result had been performed as a single project (and not as the sole shared result in longer series of private experiments) and really points to the fact that even frequentist significance is a subjective and intensional quantity (an accusation usually reserved for Bayesian inference). In this article we will comment briefly on the negative effect of un-reported repeated experiments and what should be done to compensate. Continue reading Drowning in insignificance